Bob G wrote:BC Boy , take Mr Nimans info with an open mind he has been known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his posts on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.
I have been posting on avian influenza for over a decade and in 2005 my posts got a lot of attention because of the detection of H5N1 at Qinghai Lake in China.
Prior to that there was a debate as to the direction of H5N1 transmission between wild birds and poultry. I was pretty agnostic prior to 2005 and some conservation groups used my quotes noting there was no compelling data showing wild birds were transmitting H5N1.
However, after Qinghai Lake in the spring of 2005, it was clear that the wild birds transported H5N1 from China to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia where wild birds nest over the summer.
I follow the genetic evolution of influenza and the sequences from Qinghaii Lake (Qinghai strain, clade 2.2) matched the new introductions to the north (and prior to 2005 no Asian H5N1 had been reported west of China).
I then predicted that wild birds would carry H5N1 to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. I also predicted human cases would appear in the Middle East and have the H5 genetic change S227N, which was subsequently confirmed.
These predicts were all made through Recombinomics commentaries which you can google or go to the What's New page which also has a link to archived commentaries (see links on first post).
In 2005 the conservation groups flooded message boards to defend wild birds and post make personal attacks.
One had his own blog and actually put up a doctor doom post. He has no background in virology, genetics or sequences, but he does do wild bird tours in Hong Kong and had correspondence with me prior to 2005 (when he quoted my agnostic position).
After 2005 he was constantly defending wild birds, which was a losing proposition.
Sequences showed that wild birds were repeatedly move H5N1 around. This year they flew H5N8 to Europe (Germany, Netherlands, and England) as well as Japan. November sequences have been published (and linked in my commentaries), and all are closely related.
When H5 came to Fraser Valley I suggested that H5N8 was likely. When H5N2 was confirmed I said it would still be Fujian H5.
On Friday Canada acknowledged that Fraser Valley H5N2 had 5 H5N8 genes including a Fujian H5, and also had 3 North American genes including N2.
These results confirm a wild bird origin with Fujian H5N8 genes, as predicted.
Canada is now currently trying to manage the message (and today reported and deleted the detection of H5 in 55,000 table egg hens in Langley which they will likely announce tomorrow).
I would link the appropriate commentaries, but I am not allowed to link as a new member.
