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H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada.

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CynthiaM
TruNorth
ipf
bcboy
Bob G
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bcboy

bcboy
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http://www.grizzlycurb.ca

bcboy

bcboy
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Has anybody zoomed in on this link to the map of the infected farms?
https://mapsengine.google.com/map/viewer?mid=zv94AJqgUct4.kB0Jt6F7NlIM&hl=en
Just amazing how close all the long narrow barns with 3 or 4 grain silo are. I would presume all these long narrow barns next to the infected barns have poultry in them too. What do you think?

Zoom in on this one farm. 13000 Broiler Chicken Farm Chilliwack.
All of his neighbors must be pooping bricks.

http://www.grizzlycurb.ca

Bob G


Member
Member

BC Boy , take Mr Nimans info with an open mind he has been known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his posts on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.

TruNorth


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Member

Bob G wrote:BC Boy , take  Mr Nimans info  with an open mind he has been  known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his  posts  on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.

I'm in private correspondence with him, BC Bob. Can you give me any links to commentary that considers him to be a nutbar?

http://www.TrueNorthFarm.ca

Bob G


Member
Member

Tru North ,I consider you one of the more informed people on the poultry sites . Start a search on Dr Niman and come to your own conclusion. His points of view are well documented on the web. I personally do not follow his doom and gloom thinking.

bcboy

bcboy
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Bob G wrote:BC Boy , take  Mr Nimans info  with an open mind he has been  known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his  posts  on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.
He does have some good link on his site that take you to the map, OIE-World Organisation for Animal Health and Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

http://www.grizzlycurb.ca

TruNorth


Member
Member

Bob G wrote:Tru North  ,I consider you one of the more  informed people on the poultry sites .  Start a search on Dr Niman  and  come to your own conclusion. His points of view are well documented on the web. I personally do not follow his doom and gloom  thinking.

I looked around a little, BobG, and I can see that Dr. Niman is loathed by the anti-corporate, anti-intellectual crowd.  But I don't see any disrespect from scientists in his field or related fields.  

The negative discourse reminds me of a hullabaloo at UBC when some grad students found out that a professor had accepted a big personal contract with a large corporation.  They confronted him about this, and he said -- When these guys ask for advice, who do you want to advise them?  They can get good advice from me -- they don't have to follow it, but that's what I'll give them -- or they can get crappy advice and F*ck up... but maybe that's what you want them to do.

A scientist working in the field of viral diseases, vaccines and molecular genetics should be entitled to have opinions about situations, and express them publicly as opinions.  Dr. Nimen has some strong opinions.... as do a number of people on the chicken forums, and it doesn't make sense to me to tolerate ignorant babbling but ban opinionated scientists.

http://www.TrueNorthFarm.ca

Bob G


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Member

TN on this gentleman we will have to agree to disagree.

10H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty History Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:37 pm

niman


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Bob G wrote:BC Boy , take  Mr Nimans info  with an open mind he has been  known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his  posts  on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.
I have been posting on avian influenza for over a decade and in 2005 my posts got a lot of attention because of the detection of H5N1 at Qinghai Lake in China.

Prior to that there was a debate as to the direction of H5N1 transmission between wild birds and poultry.  I was pretty agnostic prior to 2005 and some conservation groups used my quotes noting there was no compelling data showing wild birds were transmitting H5N1.

However, after Qinghai Lake in the spring of 2005, it was clear that the wild birds transported H5N1 from China to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia where wild birds nest over the summer.

I follow the genetic evolution of influenza and the sequences from Qinghaii Lake (Qinghai strain, clade 2.2) matched the new introductions to the north (and prior to 2005 no Asian H5N1 had been reported west of China).

I then predicted that wild birds would carry H5N1 to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.  I also predicted human cases would appear in the Middle East and have the H5 genetic change S227N, which was subsequently confirmed.

These predicts were all made through Recombinomics commentaries which you can google or go to the What's New page which also has a link to archived commentaries (see links on first post).

In 2005 the conservation groups flooded message boards to defend wild birds and post make personal attacks.

One had his own blog and actually put up a doctor doom post.  He has no background in virology, genetics or sequences, but he does do wild bird tours in Hong Kong and had correspondence with me prior to 2005 (when he quoted my agnostic position).

After 2005 he was constantly defending wild birds, which was a losing proposition.

Sequences showed that wild birds were repeatedly move H5N1 around.  This year they flew H5N8 to Europe (Germany, Netherlands, and England) as well as Japan.  November sequences have been published (and linked in my commentaries), and all are closely related.

When H5 came to Fraser Valley I suggested that H5N8 was likely.  When H5N2 was confirmed I said it would still be Fujian H5.

On Friday Canada acknowledged that Fraser Valley H5N2 had 5 H5N8 genes including a Fujian H5, and also had 3 North American genes including N2.

These results confirm a wild bird origin with Fujian H5N8 genes, as predicted.

Canada is now currently trying to manage the message (and today reported and deleted the detection of H5 in 55,000 table egg hens in Langley which they will likely announce tomorrow).

I would link the appropriate commentaries, but I am not allowed to link as a new member.

11H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty 53,000 Layers in Langley Confirmed Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:13 pm

niman


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Member

Bob G wrote:Tru North  ,I consider you one of the more  informed people on the poultry sites .  Start a search on Dr Niman  and  come to your own conclusion. His points of view are well documented on the web. I personally do not follow his doom and gloom  thinking.
53,000 layers in Langley confirmed.

Wild birds with Fujian H5 never reported previously in the Americas. Pathogenicity index of 2.96-2.98 (almost all experimental chickens dead within 24 hours).

Fujian is quite real - news will likely break tomorrow.

12H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty Map Has Langley Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:17 pm

niman


Member
Member

bcboy wrote:
Bob G wrote:BC Boy , take  Mr Nimans info  with an open mind he has been  known to profess Doom and Gloom on avian flu for along time. Some of his  posts  on the flu are based on conjecture, many scientists consider him to be a nut bar.
He does have some good link on his site that take you to the map, OIE-World Organisation for Animal Health and Canadian Food Inspection Agency.
The google map has been updated with the 53,000 layers in Langley.

bcboy

bcboy
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niman wrote:The google map has been updated with the 53,000 layers in Langley.
So that make 10 farms now with this one reported today?
https://mapsengine.google.com/map/viewer?mid=zv94AJqgUct4.kB0Jt6F7NlIM&hl=en

http://www.grizzlycurb.ca

ipf


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Thank you, mods.
I think it's important that we be allowed to hear all voices.

TruNorth


Member
Member

So, do I understand this correctly: that the 'game changer' feature of this new strain of AI is that it is being spread by wild birds (not people traveling between barns, which was the main vector in the past), and therefore our free ranging flocks will continue to be vulnerable to infection every time these wild birds come close? The Fraser Valley is a major staging site for the Pacific Flyway -- we have wild birds up the ying yang. I know, I do the data submissions for the Christmas Bird Counts.

Dr. Niman -- is there any chance that this H5N2 is less pathogenic to heritage birds than it is to commercial birds? It obviously hasn't decimated the wild birds that are carrying it.... Is there any chance that any of the governmental institutions involved in this would check if there is any difference in the mortality rate for heritage birds?

http://www.TrueNorthFarm.ca

CynthiaM

CynthiaM
Golden Member
Golden Member

I like to read all this stuff, and do a whole lotta thinking, as usual, and pondering too. I like to read this kind of stuff and I think that being aware of things can do nothing but good. I too wonder why the wild birds don't die? I wonder if heritage birds do die? I do wonder about wondering about why I wonder so much. Good topic. I wonder if my birds may be affected one day too, although we are not on the flight path as such as the Fraser Valley of BC is for so many migratory birds. Maybe that flu won't even rear its ugly head up in northern areas, we can only hope. This is a good topic, oh, did I mention that already. Have a most awesome day, CynthiaM.

okanagan_peppers

okanagan_peppers
Member
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ipf wrote:Thank you, mods.
I think it's important that we be allowed to hear all voices.

I agree...even if we don't agree or find that someones info to be against our own ideas
.....with the added reminder to respect others on this forum.

18H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty Immunity Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:15 pm

niman


Member
Member

TruNorth wrote:So, do I understand this correctly: that the 'game changer' feature of this new strain of AI is that it is being spread by wild birds (not people traveling between barns, which was the main vector in the past), and therefore our free ranging flocks will continue to be vulnerable to infection every time these wild birds come close?  The Fraser Valley is a major staging site for the Pacific Flyway -- we have wild birds up the ying yang.  I know, I do the data submissions for the Christmas Bird Counts.

Dr. Niman -- is there any chance that this H5N2 is less pathogenic to heritage birds than it is to commercial birds?  It obviously hasn't decimated the wild birds that are carrying it....  Is there any chance that any of the governmental institutions involved in this would check if there is any difference in the mortality rate for heritage birds?
There is a lot of low path H5 in wild birds which gives them some immunity to H5 high path. There can also be host genetic factors that help. The pathogenicity test uses experimental chickens, where the virus is extremely lethal.

In 2005 another clade was found in wild birds at Qinghai Lake due to a massive die-off of bar headed geese. Qinghai Lake is in central China and is the largest lake in the country. I think about half of the bar headed geese died. Mortality was lower in other species and that clade was eventually largely replaced by Fujian (although initial cases in eastern China was due to a slightly different sub-clade (2.3.2 instead of the 2.3.4 in Canada). H5N8 is 2.3.4 and still causes some mortality in wild birds (recently a white naped crane was confirmed and that bird did die).

In North America, H5 and H7 bird flu is controlled by culling, but North America has never had high path H5 in wild birds previously, which is why it is a game changer.

Piet

Piet
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Another barn in germany just confirmed H2. That both part in the world have outbreaks at the same time would make you wonder too. It kills so fast that more than half the birds are already dead when they get there to cull the rest. But every time it has been in commercial barns that have been totally enclosed, so no outdoor runs and where almost nothing can get in or out.

http://pvgflemishgiants.tripod.com/

20H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty Japan Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:45 pm

niman


Member
Member

Piet wrote:Another barn in germany just confirmed H2. That both part in the world have outbreaks at the same time would make you wonder too. It kills so fast that more than half the birds are already dead when they get there to cull the rest. But every time it has been in commercial barns that have been totally enclosed, so no outdoor runs and where almost nothing can get in or out.
Largest poultry grower in Japan just announce high path H5 (likely H5N8 which has same H5 as BC).

21H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty Sequences Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:49 pm

niman


Member
Member

Piet wrote:Another barn in germany just confirmed H2. That both part in the world have outbreaks at the same time would make you wonder too. It kills so fast that more than half the birds are already dead when they get there to cull the rest. But every time it has been in commercial barns that have been totally enclosed, so no outdoor runs and where almost nothing can get in or out.
November sequences from Germany, England, Netherlands, and Japan are public.  All closely related, but independent introductions.

Droppings in fields can be mechanically transported into barns by rodents.

bcboy

bcboy
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H5N8 avian influenza in guinea fowl and chickens from a small backyard poultry flock in Winston, Oregon.

https://mapsengine.google.com/map/viewer?authuser=0&authuser=0&hl=en&hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.ktIjI0Pz2tn8

Has anyone seen this map?

http://www.grizzlycurb.ca

23H5N2 Avian Influenza In Fraser Valley Canada. Empty H5N8 Map Sun Dec 21, 2014 10:54 am

niman


Member
Member

bcboy wrote:H5N8 avian influenza in guinea fowl and chickens from a small backyard poultry flock in Winston, Oregon.


Has anyone seen this map?
It's my map.

Any questions?

TruNorth


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Thank you!

http://www.TrueNorthFarm.ca

authenticfarm

authenticfarm
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http://www.partridgechanteclers.com

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